Nikolai Kardashev · 1964

Kardashev Scale

K = 0.735 — 73.5% of the way to becoming a planetary civilization

The last 0.185 K took 2,000,000 years. The next 0.265 could take 280.

† X-axis uses logarithmic compression for ancient history. Hover dots for context.

Historical
Fast (4%/yr)
Base (2%/yr)
Stalled (0.5%/yr)
Uncertainty band
Progress to Type I Civilization
YOU ARE HERE
0.0 0.5 0.735 1.0 TYPE I
0.265 remaining  ·  500× today's energy output
Growth rate sensitivity — Years to Type I
Annual growth Years to Type I Arrival year
1%/yr~624 years~2649
2%/yr now~313 years~2338
4%/yr~158 years~2183
6%/yr~105 years~2130
Global primary energy grew at ~2.3%/yr over 1990–2023 (IEA). Renewables alone are growing at ~15%/yr but are still ~15% of total.
The pace of change

The Acceleration

10,000 BCE → 1800 CE · 11,800 years
0.027
K gained per millennium
Gained 0.32 K over 11,800 years
1800 → 2025 · 225 years
0.60
K gained per millennium
↑ 22× faster
Gained 0.135 K in 225 years
2025 → 2125 · projected base case
1.65
K gained per millennium
↑ 61× historical pace
0.165 K gain in 100 years
The energy gap

What "500×" actually means

TODAY
All human civilization — every engine, light, data center, and heater on Earth
20 TW
TYPE I
6% of sunlight hitting Earth · every weather system, all ocean currents, all geothermal combined · 70 kW per km² of Earth's surface
10,000 TW
SOLAR IN
Total solar power intercepted by Earth — drives all weather, ocean currents, and biology on the planet
170,000 TW
SUN TOTAL
→ ∞ beyond chart
Complete Dyson sphere — Type II civilization. 2 billion× human energy use today.
3.8×1017 TW
Quantified delay risks

What delays Type I

Climate tipping cascade
+50–120yr delay
IPCC: 2°C overshoot could reduce global GDP 10–23% — equivalent to contracting the entire global energy economy for generations
IPCC AR6 Working Group II · 2022
Major geopolitical conflict
+15–40yr delay
Ukraine war reduced EU energy investment 18% in 2022 alone — extrapolated to global conflict scale, infrastructure buildout collapses for decades
IEA World Energy Investment · 2023
Fossil fuel incumbency
+30–70yr delay
IEA: Fossil subsidies hit $7T in 2022 vs $1T for renewables — a 7:1 headwind that slows the energy transition by decades
IEA Fossil Fuel Subsidies Report · 2023
Evidence base

Why we think this happens

Real-world signals anchoring each prediction milestone.

2050
K = 0.758
Fusion goes commercial. Solar hits near-zero cost.
  • NIF achieved net fusion ignition in December 2022 — the first time in history output exceeded input
    National Ignition Facility · Dec 2022
  • Commonwealth Fusion targets a 200 MW demo reactor (SPARC) by 2027 using high-temperature superconducting magnets
    Commonwealth Fusion Systems · 2023 roadmap
  • Solar LCOE dropped ~90% in a single decade (2010–2020) and is still on a steep learning curve — $0.01/kWh projected by 2030s
    IRENA / BloombergNEF · 2024
  • Global renewable additions hit a record 560 GW in 2023; IEA projects renewables become the #1 electricity source by 2025
    IEA Renewables 2023 Report
2075
K = 0.795
Energy moves off-planet. Space solar becomes real.
  • JAXA published a concrete roadmap for GW-scale space-based solar power; orbital demonstration satellite planned
    JAXA Space Solar Power Systems · 2024
  • ESA's SOLARIS initiative formally approved in 2022 — targets commercial space solar by the 2050s using microwave transmission
    ESA Ministerial Council · Nov 2022
  • China plans a 1 MW experimental space solar station in LEO by 2030, scaling to GW by 2050 per CAST roadmap
    Chinese Academy of Space Technology · 2023
  • Advanced SMRs (TerraPower Natrium, NuScale) receiving first regulatory approvals — enabling decarbonized baseload globally
    NRC / TerraPower · 2023–2024
2100
K = 0.845
Planetary decarbonization complete. Space infrastructure matures.
  • IEA Net Zero scenario projects renewables supplying 90% of global electricity by 2050 — full decarbonization by ~2070–2080
    IEA Net Zero by 2050 · 2023
  • SpaceX Starship targets $10/kg to orbit (vs ~$2,000 today) — this cost collapse makes large orbital infrastructure economically feasible
    SpaceX Starship development · 2024
  • AI-driven grid optimization could reduce energy transmission waste by 30–40%, effectively adding hundreds of GW of usable capacity
    McKinsey Global Institute · 2023
  • NASA Artemis + CLPS programs begin permanent lunar presence by 2030s — foundation for off-Earth resource extraction
    NASA Artemis Program · 2024
2125
K = 0.900
Approaching Type I. Stellar energy enters reach.
  • A Dyson swarm capturing just 0.01% of solar output = 4×10²² W — roughly 2 billion times current human energy use. Even early steps cross Type I
    Theoretical astrophysics (Dyson 1960)
  • Fusion-powered spacecraft (VASIMR, direct fusion drive concepts) could enable interplanetary civilization with distributed energy nodes
    Princeton Plasma Physics Lab · ongoing
  • Post-AGI systems could autonomously design and deploy energy infrastructure at speeds no human-paced timeline can model — the wildcard accelerant
    Bostrom, Russell — AI forecasting literature
  • Self-replicating factory concepts (von Neumann probes) studied seriously since the 1980s — key enabler of rapid Dyson construction
    von Neumann 1966 / Freitas 1980